ECLAC forecasts contraction of 14% in Latin America exports in 2015
The Latin America and Caribbean export values will fall into an increasing decline for the third consecutive year in 2015. The drop will be of 14%, according to new projections by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) released on Tuesday (Oct. 20).
The 2015 Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy report sustains that the sharp drop in commodity prices and lower international demand for the products that the region exports have affected its overseas shipments. In 2014 and 2013, exports declined 3% and 0.4%, respectively.
The slowdown of the Chinese economy since 2012 also explains the fall in Latin American and Caribbean exports, especially from the countries specialized in the primary products that the Asian country imports, says the UN commission. According to the report, this new figures may create an opportunity for the region to diversify trade with China.
The report indicates that the drop in export values will be more acute in countries that export oil and its derivatives, and other commodities. Venezuela will have a contraction of 41% in exports; Bolivia, 30%; Colombia, 29%; Argentina and Chile, 17% and Brazil 15%. Mexico and Central America will have less-severe declines in exports, 4% due to the demand from the United States, their primary destination market.
According to ECLAC, the probability of a further contraction in exports in 2016 is high, since no recovery in commodity prices is expected for next year.
ECLAC proposes that the region put more emphasis on intraregional trade, on strengthening the implementation of trade facilitation, and on coordinating and negotiating with major international trade players as a bloc.
"The region is at a crossroads: either it continues along the current path restricted by the global context, or it commits to a more active international insertion that favors industrial policy, diversification, trade facilitation and intraregional integration," ECLAC's Executive Secretary Alicia Bárcena pointed out.
Translated by Amarílis Anchieta
Fonte: ECLAC forecasts contraction of 14% in Latin America exports in 2015
