Public security problem unlikely to be solved by 2023, says IPEA
Senasp representative Rogério Carneiro, IPEA's president Jessé Souza, and the MPOG representative Jorge Abrahão,during the launching of "Violence and Public Security in 2023" (Marcelo Camargo/Agência Brasil)
Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA) released Monday (Nov. 23) a study indicating possible scenarios for Brazil until 2023, and proposing actions to the country for social prevention and public security.
Even in the most optimistic scenarios, the study shows that, until 2023, it will be very hard to reverse certain trends, like the great social inequality, easy access to firearms, growth of crime, high number of police killings, intensification of criminal law, dealing with public security problems and deep feeling of insecurity.
"To change these trends, we will depend on coordinated actions involving all sectors, and it needs to be developed and led by the Ministry of Justice," the study read
Entitled "Violence and Public Security in 2023: exploratory scenarios and prospective planning", the study's purpose is to contribute to the federal government's planning for public security by constructing and analyzing possible scenarios.
One of the authors, Helder Ferreira, IPEA's coordinator of Studies, State Policies, and Institutions, said it is important to continue planning and discussing with society to come up with a national public security plan addressing not only murders but other topics related to security.
"To integrate police forces is already being debated in Congress. About social prevention, we need to work with young people in situations of social vulnerability and ex-convicts, including those to whom educational measures have been imposed, in order to try to move them away from the path of crime," said IPEA's coordinator.
Among the solutions to improve public security, the coordinator defends the revision of the Disarmament Statute. "All studies indicate that more weapons bring less security," he stated.
Rogério Carneiro said that we need to evaluate the actions based on their effectiveness in short, medium, and long term, and devote the most qualified actions to social prevention. "Therefore, the Ministry of Justice is seeking partnerships with other social ministries in order to define some preventive actions. They [preventive actions] have results for medium and long term, are more efficient, long-lasting, and more structural. As the survey indicates, we will possibly not reach all [targets] by 2023, like removing social inequality, for example," he pointed out.
Trends and prospects
The study reinforces the urgent need to continue developing public security policies. "Considering that the risks of deteriorating situations may lead to an endemic state violence, or to a police state," reports Rogério Carneiro. He said the analysis of trends, uncertainties, and major public security sectors and their strategies led to four hypothetical scenarios: social prevention, endemic violence, authoritarian repression and state repression.
The study shows that certain decisions could lead to an undesirable future. "Choosing a more repressive, punitive and incarceration policy can reduce our freedom and increase exclusion without reducing crime rates. The repression directed at the socioeconomic most vulnerable population groups arouses a general feeling of injustice, which ultimately cuts social ties and divides the police from the community."
According to the analysis, in order to improve governance, public security policies are necessary. For this prevention and repression measures need to be better coordinated and integrated. It would also involve negotiating agreements among agencies from the three power branches to coordinate actions—which are currently only conducted by the criminal justice system—and organize public security agencies involving the society.
The book with the survey is only available in digital format on IPEA's website. The Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Planning, Budgeting, and Management were partners to carry out the project.
Translated by Amarílis Anchieta
*This translation was updated at 11:48 am on November 24 in order to reflect a correction in the source Portuguese-language story.
Fonte: Public security problem unlikely to be solved by 2023, says IPEA
