This year's inflation forescast rises to 7.56%
This year's inflation forescast from the financial institutions continues to rise. In the sixth consecutive adjustment, the projection for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which measures the official inflation rate, increased from 7.26% to 7.56%. The estimates are far above the target's center of 4.5%, and above this year's target ceiling of 6.5%. The target ceiling for 2017 is 6%.
Data are from the Focus Bulletin, weekly updated based on estimates from financial institutions for the main economic indicators.
After the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) has decided to keep the Brazilian benchmark interest rate (SELIC) at 14.25% per anuum, specialists do not expect these rates to increase in 2016. For 2017, they have forecast lower SELIC rates in order to reach a rate of 12.50% per annum at the end of the period. It had been previously estimated at 12.75% per annum.
In addition to high inflation, the financial institutions expect an economic slowdown in 2016. The low Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast have worsened for the third consecutive time, from 3.01% to 3.21%. For 2017, the institutions expect a recovery, but the growth forecast has been reduced. For the third consecutive time, growth estimates have reduced, going from 0.70% to 0.60%.
In its turn, the forecast for the slowdown in industrial production this year rose from 3.80% to 4%. For 2017, the sector should recover, forecasting a growth of 1.5%, stable for two weeks.
The forecast for the deficit on current transactions—comprising purchases and sales of goods and services as well as income transfers with other countries—rose from $33.55 billion to $33 billion for this year, and from $27.25 billion to $28 billion for 2017. The forecast for trade surplus (exports exceeds imports) have decreased, from $37.90 billion to $36.35 billion for this year, and from $40 billion to $39.3 billion for 2017.
The dollar's price forecast remains at $4.35 for 2016, and R$4.40 for the end of 2017. According to the financial institutions, direct foreign investment (money from abroad that goes into the productive sector) is expected to reach $55 billion this year, and $60 billion in 2017. The forecast for public sector's net debt increased from 40% to 40.2% of this year's GDP, and 43% for 2017.
Translated by Amarílis Anchieta
Fonte: This year's inflation forescast rises to 7.56%
