Financial analysts forecast 7.46% inflation this year
Analysts and investors in the financial market have once again raised the inflation forecast based on the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) this Monday (Mar. 14). The new forecast is 7.46% year-end inflation in 2016, compared to a previous 7.59%.
For 2017, the estimate remains at 6%, according to the Focus Market Readout, a weekly report published every Monday by the Central Bank, based on projections from financial institutions for the main economic indicators.
The forecast is still far from mid-target (4.5%) and the upper target (6.5%) set by the government for this year. For 2017, the target ceiling is 6%. The forecast for the Central Bank interest rate (SELIC) remains at 14.25% per annum in 2016 and 12.5% p.a. in 2017.
The inflation outlook for regulated prices, such as gasoline and cooking gas, remained at 7.40%. The dollar exchange rate is expected to close out December at R$4.25.
The financial analysts' projection for this year's economic decline has deteriorated further, going from -3.50% to -3.54%. For 2017, the expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth remained stable as 0.50%. The forecast for industrial production is a 4.45% decline in 2016.
There has been an improvement in the outlook for the current account deficit, a key indicator for transactions between Brazil and other countries, which narrowed from $29.26 billion to $24.10 billion, with the balance of trade at $41.20 billion. The projected foreign direct investment remains at $55 billion.
Translated by Mayra Borges
Fonte: Financial analysts forecast 7.46% inflation this year
