Brazil’s coffee harvest estimated to grow 16.8% in 2022
The first estimate for Brazil’s coffee harvest in 2022 shows that the yield should increase by 16.8 percent from last year to 55.7 million sacks of 60kg. In 2021, the total amount of coffee produced was 47.7 million sacks. The figures were released today (Jan. 18) by public utility Conab. The prediction, however, is below 2020’s yield of 63 million 60kg sacks.
The decline in 2021 is believed to stem from climate changes, with drought and frost impacting plantations in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Paraná, chiefly in July and August 2021.
The adverse weather conditions should take their toll more severely on the Arabica variety, which should not reach its full productive potential in 2022. Still, Conab declared that the output for this strain of coffee is likely to surge 23.4 percent from the previous harvest, estimated at 38.7 million sacks.
In this harvest, the cultivated area for Arabica in Brazil is thought to cover 1,809.98 thousand hectares and accounts for nearly 80 percent of the total region dedicated to domestic coffee growing. Minas Gerais has the largest area with the species, 1,316.59 thousand hectares—70 percent of country’s occupied area.
For Robusta, a new record is expected, with crops adding up to approximately 17 million sacks, up 4.1 percent from the previous harvest. The result combines the expansion in the planted area, estimated at three percent, going from 375.2 thousand to 389.1 thousand hectares, and a slight improvement of 0.4 percent in production, from 43.4 to 43.6 sacks collected per cultivated hectare.
Standing out among Brazilian states is Espírito Santo, with the country’s largest area dedicated to the species. The Southeastern state accounts for over 60 percent of Brazil’s total amount. Fields there are believed to take up 285.4 thousand hectares—followed by the states of Rondônia, with 71.7 thousand, and Bahia, with 42.6 thousand.
Conab reported there was an increase of 2.23 million hectares in the area dedicated to coffee growing, if the two varieties are considered together, representing an expansion of 1.7 percent from the previous cycle. The rise is also the result of adverse climate conditions registered last year, as low temperatures require more intense pruning.
The official report underscores that the yearly crops, especially Arabica, should be influenced by the so-called positive biennial effect—where a year with a high flowering rate is followed by a contrasting low—in a number of producing areas across the country.
Despite the growth in the harvest, the utility company said the landscape this time of year is marked by restrictions in the offer of coffee domestically, influenced by the lower 2021 output, a warm-up in the demand for exports, and the span between harvests.
In 2021, Brazil exported some 42.4 million sacks of 60kg of green coffee, down 3.3 percent from the year before, but up 15.3 percent in revenues, adding up to $6.4 billion.
“The tendency is that coffee prices are kept under pressure, since we’re expecting a reduction in global stocks in the 2021/22 cycle. These elevated prices are a boost to exports,” Conab explained.
