Rousseff front-runner in latest polls

Two polls released on Thursday (Oct. 2) show Brazil's president and re-election candidate Dilma Rousseff (Workers' Party, PT), at the top of voters' preferences with 40% of voting intentions. The surveys were conducted by two polling institutes, Datafolha and IBOPE. Marina Silva, running under the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) appears in second place with 24% of voting intentions, and Aécio Neves (Brazilian Social Democracy Party, PSDB), has 21% and 19% according to each polling institute respectively.

The Datafolha poll was commissioned by Globo TV and newspaper Folha de S. Paulo. In their previous survey published on September 30, Rousseff had 40%, Silva, 25%, and Neves, 20%. IBOPE's was commissioned by Globo TV and newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, and was also previously published on September 30th, showing Rousseff with 39% of votes, Silva, with 25%, and Neves, with 19%.

In a runoff simulation featuring Rousseff and Silva, Datafolha found that Rousseff would win with 48% of the votes, whereas Silva would have 41%. In the previous poll, Rousseff had had 49% of voting intentions, and Silva, 41%. In a runoff between Neves and Rousseff, she would be the winner with 48% as against 41% of the vote. The previous results had been 50% and 41% respectively.

IBOPE has also polled on runoff scenarios and found that Rousseff would win with 43% of the vote against Silva's 36%, where blank/spoiled votes would total 12%, and undecideds, 8%. In a runoff between Neves and Rousseff, she would win with 46% versus Neves's 33% – blank/spoiled votes accounting for 12%; undecided, 9%. In a contest between Neves and Silva, she would beat him by 38%-33%, with 18% blank/spoiled votes, and 11% undecided voters.

Both polls found that the remaining presidential candidates – Eduardo Jorge (Green Party, PV), Pastor Everaldo (PSC), Luciana Genro (PSOL), Zé Maria (PSTU), Eymael (PSDC), Levy Fidelix (PRTB); Mauro Iasi (PCB); and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) each had 1% or less of voting intentions.

Regarding disapproval ratings, Datafolha shows that Rousseff is also the front-runner with 32% of disapproval; whereas Silva had 25%; Pastor Everaldo, 22%; Levy Fidelix, 22%; Neves, 21%; Zé Maria, 18%; Eymael, 16%; Luciana Genro, 16%; Rui Costa Pimenta, 15%; Eduardo Jorge, 14%; and Mauro Iasi, 14%.

Voters have also given ratings to Rousseff's administration. Those calling it as “excellent” or “good” make up 39% of Datafolha's total respondents; “neutral” ratings totaled 36%, and 23% of respondents said they consider her performance “poor” or “very poor”. Two percent were undecided.

Voting will be on Sunday, October 5, when Brazil's president, state governors, senators, and federal and state legislators will be chosen. In case none of the candidates running for president has more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held on October 26; the same applies to state governors.

Translated by Mayra Borges