Elections in Brazil reveal fragmented party system, analysts say

In addition to following the trend observed in the first round, which saw the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) rise and the Workers' Party (PT) lose strength, the second round of municipal elections has exposed Brazil's fragmented party system as a number of fringe political parties came out victorious in large cities across Brazil.

Maurício Santoro, a political scientist and International Relations Professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), believes that, if, on the one hand, the outcome consolidates President Michel Temer's government coalition, the ballot results cast a stark light on the country's atomized network of political groupings, as parties with little representation were elected in major capitals.

“This fragmentation was the hallmark of our second round. It's a 2010s phenomenon. We may infer it comes as a result of the political crisis, a bigger mess in the big-time political parties targeted by Operation Car Wash. They're suffering the impact of the investigations. This makes room for other parties,” Santoro said.

In the view of political scientist Carlos Ranulfo, coordinator at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) Center for Legislative Studies, the victory of Marcelo Crivella of the Brazilian Republican Party (PRB), in Rio de Janeiro; Alexandre Kalil, of the Humanistic Party of Solidarity (PHS), in Belo Horizonte; and Rafael Greca, of the National Mobilization Party (PMN), in Curitiba, shows how far Brazilian fringe parties are spreading throughout the country.

“Take the state capitals, for instance. We have some 13 or 14 parties in charge. It's a lot, if you take into consideration that, up to 2014, we had always worked with three major parties: the PT, the PSDB, and the PMDB. It's a fragmentation in the network of political parties that came about after the fall of the PT. The most distinctive feature of this election is further shattering. If the political system doesn't undergo an overhaul by 2017, in 2018 [when the race for president and state governor is due], we'll witness a further increase in the number of parties, by all accounts,” Ranulfo argued.

The PSDB, the PMDB, and the PT

The PSDB has gained momentum, Ranulfo maintains, as a number of its right-leaning members have taken the reins of important capitals and other cities. “That is made crystal clear in the hegemony São Paulo Governor Gerlado Alckmin has attained along the process. He does well in São Paulo, whereas Aécio Neves fares poorly in Minas Gerais. Other parties start to orbit around this base formed by Alckmin's PSDB.” Alckim-backed João Dória Junior was elected outright in São Paulo, and João Leite, supported by Aécio in Belo Horizonte, was defeated in the second round.

“PSDB's victory is Alckmin's victory, which makes him a stronger presidential hopeful in 2018,” Santoro says.

Another highlight was the defeat faced by the Workers' Party in the elections. “The PT was expelled from virtually all the major Brazilian cities. The biggest city it won was Rio Branco, state capital of Acre,” Santoro went on to say.

A shift to the right

The experts have no doubt there has been a shift to the right following the mayoral elections. In Santoro's opinion, the conservative country arising after the second round is a reflexion of a political landscape in which the PT is pushed aside by both the economic crisis and the party's reputation, battered by the Car Wash probes. “It's a country that's more conservative, and also more skeptic about politics, with a significant amount of abstentions, lots of spoiled and blank votes. People are dissatisfied with the political options they're given,” he maintained.

Santoro believes that a large number of politicians have had their future careers put on hold after the arrest of ousted Federal Deputy Eduardo Cunha, a scenario aggravated for them by the possibility of plea bargain statements implicating Odebrecht executives under Operation Car Wash. “We're faced with three main question marks before 2018: Car Wash, and how hard it will impact the summit of Brazil's political elite, especially that of the PMDB; second, where our economy is headed and whether recovery is on the horizon; and third, the direction to be taken in the overhauls being negotiated by the Temer administration with Congress, particularly with regard to social security and labor. We're faced with a lot of uncertainties in the political system. The whole thing makes it difficult to negotiate a wide-ranging political reform,” he added.

Translated by Fabrício Ferreira