Central Bank forecasts $84 billion deficit in 2015 foreign accounts
BC's head of the economic department Tulio Maciel
The Central Bank (BC) forecasts a deficit of $84 billion (4.42% of the GDP) in Brazil's foreign accounts in 2015. To comply with the latest handbook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Brazilian financial institution adopted a new calculation method and revised the prediction previously released.
Before the change, the estimate was that the so-called current transactions (commercial, financial and service exchange) would close out the year running a deficit of nearly $80 billion. This figure indicates the quality of a country's foreign accounts. In March, according to the new methodology, these transactions posted a negative balance of $5.7 billion.
BC's head of the economic department Tulio Maciel said that the figure is within the institution's prediction, a negative $5.5 billion. Maciel noted that the deficit is lower than last year's $6.6 in March.
According to BC's estimate the balance of trade will close out 2015 with a surplus of $3 billion.
“The pattern of lower and lower deficits every month repeats itself,” he added. He goes on to say that BC's April forecast for current transactions stands at $6 billion, against 2014's negative $9.1 billion in April. In Maciel's view, deficits are lower because of the reduction in negative figures in such accounts as the balance of trade and that of services.
He explained that both are under the influence of the exchange rate. In the balance of trade, for instance, a higher dollar benefits exports. According to BC's estimate, released on this Wednesday (22), the balance of trade will close out 2015 with a surplus of $3 billion.
As for the services account, which includes Brazilians' expenditures abroad, the hikes facing the US currency have driven that spending down. The decline reported for this year's first quarter was from $5.847 billion to $5.232 billion. As for the 12-month period, 2014's $1.833 billion in March slid to $1.504 billion last month.
Translated by Fabrício Ferreira
Fonte: Central Bank forecasts $84 billion deficit in 2015 foreign accounts
