Selic increase affects savings, real estate financing and FGTS
With the increase in the basic interest rate , the Selic, announced this Wednesday (8) by the Central Bank, from 7.75% to 9.25% per year, the calculation of savings income goes back to the old rule.
The new base rate also affects real estate financing and the correction of the balance of the Employment Compensation Fund (FGTS).
Referential Rate
This happens because the Referential Rate (TR), which was zeroed, will rise with the increase in the Selic rate.
The TR is calculated by the Central Bank based on the interest on National Treasury Bills (LTN), which varies according to the Selic rate.
The Referential Rate is used as an index for the correction of savings account applications, installments of loans from the Housing Finance System and from the Employment Compensation Fund (FGTS).
In the case of FGTS, the adjustment of the balance is TR plus 3%. And in home-buying loans, the rate corrects the installments.
According to the Executive Director of Economic Studies and Research at the National Association of Executives (Anefac), Miguel José Ribeiro de Oliveira, the estimate is that the TR is around 0.05%. Oliveira recalled that when the Selic was at 9.25% per year, in July 2017, the TR reached 0.0623%. But it will only be possible to know the new rate when the Central Bank releases the monthly calculation of the TR for December.
"The TR will not rise to a level that makes it impossible to pay mortgage installments because it will be at a low percentage," he said.
Savings
According to the legislation, when the Selic is equal to or less than 8.5% per year, the remuneration of savings deposits is composed of TR plus 70% of the monthly Selic rate.
With the Selic rate above 8.5% per year, savings return to TR plus 0.5% per month (6.17% per year).
According to Anefac's simulation, with an investment in the amount of R$ 10 thousand for a period of 12 months, the investor accumulates an income of R$ 680, totaling R$ 10,680 at the end of that period.
According to Anefac, savings gain in income from fixed-income funds, mainly in low-value investments, because there are higher administration fees. In savings investments, there is no administration fee.
“Thus, the savings account will continue to be an excellent investment option, especially for funds whose management fees are above 1% per year”, explains Anefac.
Inflation
Despite the increase in income, savings still lose out to inflation. The expectation of market analysts is that the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) is above 10%.
But it is not just savings that are losing out to inflation. “With inflation above 10% in the year, all investments in fixed income, variable income, savings, CDB lose to inflation. But the Central Bank signaled that it will continue to raise the Selic rate. As rates go up, investments tend to beat inflation again,” said Oliveira.
Copon
In a statement after the meeting, the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) informed that “the cycle of monetary tightening [increase in the Selic]” should advance “significantly into contractionary territory”, that is, with higher interest rates. "The Committee will persevere in its strategy until it consolidates not only the disinflation process but also the anchoring of expectations around its [inflation] targets."
“For the next meeting, the committee foresees another adjustment of the same magnitude (1.5 percentage points)”, informed the committee.
Text translated using artificial intelligence.
