Brazil: 92% of municipalities have already recorded climate disasters
In a single day, Luiz Antônio Ceccon saw his entire life story and his work on Ilha da Pintada, in Porto Alegre, washed away by the waters of the Jacuí River.
I raised livestock, worked as a fisherman, and lost a boat and fishing nets. I had sheep, goats, and pigs—I lost everything," said Ceccon.
He and his wife survived the torrential rains and floods that, in May 2024, devastated 468 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, affecting over 2.34 million people and leaving 183 dead, 806 injured, and 27 missing.
In the north of the country, just months before the floods in the south, the community of Tumbira, in Iranduba, Amazonas, was beginning to recover from a prolonged drought in February 2024—one that was stronger and longer than in previous years.
With no rainfall, the Negro River dropped to one of its lowest levels in decades in September 2023. In the months that followed, the 140 families of Tumbira—who rely primarily on tourism—were severely impacted.
Climate disasters
Researcher Ronaldo Christofoletti, from the Institute of the Sea at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp), explains that the daily lives of these communities were affected by what he calls “climate disasters.” His analysis is part of the first report in the Brazil in Transformation series, which analyzes how natural disasters in the country are being intensified by global climate change.
"One striking figure is that 92 percent of Brazilian municipalities have already experienced disasters and been affected in some way—and the frequency is increasing," noted Christofoletti.
The study cross-referenced data from the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine (USA)—which shows a gradual rise in global air and ocean temperatures—with figures from the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development's Integrated Disaster Information System (S2ID) spanning the past 32 years (1991–2023).
Based on these data, researchers concluded that for every 0.1°C rise in the global average air temperature, 360 additional disaster records were registered.
When the same increase was observed in the oceans, there was a rise of 584 records, corresponding to an average increase of 100 occurrences per year in Brazil between 1991 and 2023.
During this period, the study identified 64,280 climate disasters, categorizing them into five distinct types of records:
Climatological: related to droughts, including forest fires and low air humidity;
Hydrological: related to floods, such as torrential downpours, flooding, and waterlogging;
Meteorological: linked to temperature variations, including cold waves, heatwaves, cyclones, and coastal winds;
Geological: associated with mass displacement, such as landslides, earthquakes, and erosion;
Biological: related to species imbalances, including epidemics and infestations.
"When broader environmental changes occur, such as deforestation, pollution, and nutrient enrichment of waters, they create conditions that promote the proliferation of various infectious agents—viruses, bacteria, and others. At that point, it becomes a biological disaster, as it would not happen naturally," explains the researcher.
Of the total number of climate disasters, 49.8 percent were climatological, 26.58 percent were hydrological, 19.87 percent were meteorological, 3.32 percent were geological, and finally, biological disasters accounted for 0.35 percent of the records between 1991 and 2023.
Losses
The researchers also found that for every 0.1°C increase in the global average air temperature, Brazil experienced an estimated economic loss of BRL 5.6 billion.
"All the data on economic damage, we can say with certainty, is underestimated. We know the actual impact is greater, as the data we used to assess the economic effects only include what municipalities report on the Civil Defense disaster platform," explains Christofoletti.
According to the researcher, the economic impacts affect the population in two ways: first, directly, when climate disasters damage people's property, housing, and production; and second, when public authorities must redirect resources to address the emergency needs that arise.
"This is public spending that should be going towards education, healthcare, and benefiting society, but instead, it's being used to rebuild, repair, and recover cities," he added.
The study also revealed significant social impacts, which are affecting an increasing number of people. In the last four years of the research, from 2020 to 2023, nearly 78 million individuals were impacted by climate disasters—equivalent to 70 percent of the total affected in the previous decade, from 2010 to 2019.
The researcher explains that these figures reflect social impacts that extend beyond the number of victims—dead, injured, and affected. Christofoletti also highlights the unaccounted emotional losses of these victims.
"That house, especially for the most vulnerable populations, was passed down from their mother, grandfather, and great-grandfather. It carried the history of the people who lived there. These are losses that can't be measured and have a profound impact on mental health," he noted.
The researcher added that another study conducted by the Unifesp institute team found that 62 percent of the individuals surveyed feel afraid on days when heavy rain is forecast in their region.
"When 62 percent of the population says, 'I feel afraid when it rains,' we're already talking about a mental health impact. People experience fear, and this has a very strong effect—whether it's due to the loss of possessions, which isn’t just about money but about the memories and emotional value they hold, or the direct impact on mental health," he added.
